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Introduction

The typical complications of round-robin tennis typically lead to at this point of the ATP World Tour Finals fans frequently find themselves scratching our heads, searching around for a mathematical tool and striving to determine the complex permutations of qualification. However today's game between Alexander Zverev and Auger-Aliassime, fortunately, is easy. This is a winner-takes-all affair: the successful player secures a semi-final battle against Alcaraz at this championship finale; the defeated player goes home.

Zverev is the favourite for this: the elite athlete is the player with greater achievements, has claimed the title at this competition on two prior occasions and leads their head-to-head six matches to three, having won both their previous matches on an enclosed hard court.

However … this particular court on which Auger-Aliassime has claimed the majority of his titles, he is full of confidence after his impressive recovery against Ben Shelton on midweek and he eliminated the German in the US Championships initial phase in late summer. Furthermore, the court pace is quicker in the host city than at Flushing Meadows, which provides an additional advantage in AA’s benefit.

If Zverev holds back, like he was against Sinner, and Auger-Aliassime takes it to the German with his stinging serves and bold strategy, there is a strong chance the young Canadian – the one-time phenom who was previously positioned before the Spanish and Italian stars to take over from the Big Three – who obtains the questionable privilege of facing the world No 1 the next day.

Play begins: at around 20:30 in the host city, 19:30 Greenwich Mean Time.