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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still