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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd