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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.