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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.